MLB / mlb / live
HOU 6 / BOS 3HOUHouston Astros52%
BOSBoston Red Sox48%
at Fenway Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedHOUAway starterSpencer Arrighetti
Model pickHOU moneyline52%Model 20260414_1
BOSHome starterConnelly Early
HOU52%ML +105
Base model probability52%Moneyline only
BOS48%ML -125
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#7
Total lean · analyst-timeNo total lean
Model-market gap · analyst-time6.4 pts
Away pitcher Arrighetti on fallback data with 7.94 ERA and 1.94 WHIP creates uncertainty. Model picks HOU at 52.2% but market has BOS -124 (54.2% implied). Early's 1.69 ERA in small sample (5.1 IP) is unreliable. Pitcher data gap prevents strong view but lean home with market.
pitcher data fallback
Projection Context
Projected margin0.3
Projected total9.2
Market total9.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+105 / -125HOU / BOS moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+158)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -108 / U -112
32 books30 ML25 run line22 total