MLB / mlb / live
HOU 1 / BOS 3HOUHouston Astros56%
BOSBoston Red Sox44%
at Fenway Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedHOUAway starterMike Burrows
Model pickHOU moneyline56%Model 20260414_1
BOSHome starterJake Bennett
HOU56%ML +102
Base model probability56%Moneyline only
BOS44%ML -122
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#10
Total lean · analyst-timeNo total lean
Model-market gap · analyst-time8.7 pts
TBD starter for BOS creates unknowable matchup dynamic. Model leans HOU 55.7% vs market 46.9% implied—material gap with structural uncertainty. Burrows' 7.94 ERA in 5.2 IP is tiny sample noise. Cannot form defensible view without home pitcher identity.
pitcher data fallbackLarge model-market gap
Projection Context
Projected margin0.9
Projected total9.0
Market total9.5
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+102 / -122HOU / BOS moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+154)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.5O +100 / U -120
29 books27 ML22 run line19 total