MLB / mlb / live
HOU 1 / BOS 3HOUHouston Astros56%
BOSBoston Red Sox44%
at Fenway Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedHOUAway starterMike Burrows
Model pickHOU moneyline56%Model 20260414_1
BOSHome starterJake Bennett
HOU56%ML +102
Base model probability56%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability47%Selected moneyline pick
BOS44%ML -122
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#10
Total leanNo total lean
Model-market gap8.3 pts
TBD starter for BOS creates unknowable matchup dynamic. Model leans HOU 55.7% vs market 46.9% implied—material gap with structural uncertainty. Burrows' 7.94 ERA in 5.2 IP is tiny sample noise. Cannot form defensible view without home pitcher identity.
pitcher data fallbackLarge model-market gap
Projection Context
Projected margin0.9
Projected total9.0
Market total9.5
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+102 / -122HOU / BOS moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+154)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.5O +100 / U -120
29 books27 ML22 run line19 total