MLB / mlb / live
NYY 4 / BOS 1NYYNew York Yankees42%
BOSBoston Red Sox58%
at Fenway Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedNYYAway starterMax Fried
Model pickBOS moneyline58%Model 20260414_1
BOSHome starterRanger Suarez
NYY42%ML -145
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability43%Selected moneyline pick
BOS58%ML +120
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#6
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap14.1 pts
Model picks BOS at 57.5% vs market 43.6%—a 14pp gap flagged correctly. Fried's 0.00 ERA in 6.1 IP is obviously incomplete data; BOS offense at 3.4 RPG is league-worst. Model's 9.24 total vs market 7.5 is a 1.74-run miss, likely overweighting BOS recent offensive stats in small sample. Lean NYY, lean under.
Large model-market gaptotal far from marketoffense defense mismatch
Projection Context
Projected margin0.4
Projected total9.2
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-145 / +120NYY / BOS moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-140)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -118 / U -102
32 books30 ML25 run line22 total