MLB / mlb / live
NYY 4 / BOS 1NYYNew York Yankees42%
BOSBoston Red Sox58%
at Fenway Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedNYYAway starterMax Fried
Model pickBOS moneyline58%Model 20260414_1
BOSHome starterRanger Suarez
NYY42%ML -145
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
BOS58%ML +120
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#6
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time13.9 pts
Model picks BOS at 57.5% vs market 43.6%—a 14pp gap flagged correctly. Fried's 0.00 ERA in 6.1 IP is obviously incomplete data; BOS offense at 3.4 RPG is league-worst. Model's 9.24 total vs market 7.5 is a 1.74-run miss, likely overweighting BOS recent offensive stats in small sample. Lean NYY, lean under.
Large model-market gaptotal far from marketoffense defense mismatch
Projection Context
Projected margin0.4
Projected total9.2
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-145 / +120NYY / BOS moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-140)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -118 / U -102
32 books30 ML25 run line22 total