MLB / mlb / live
DET 4 / BOS 1DETDetroit Tigers59%
BOSBoston Red Sox41%
at Fenway Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedDETAway starterTarik Skubal
Model pickDET moneyline59%Model 20260414_1
BOSHome starterBrayan Bello
DET59%ML -152
Base model probability59%Moneyline only
BOS41%ML +130
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time1.0 pts
Model sees DET 58.6%, market implies 57.6% — tight agreement favoring Tigers. Skubal's 0.00 ERA in 6.0 IP is too small to trust but he's an ace. Model's 9.41 total vs market 7.0 is a 2.4-run gap; model likely overweighting BOS offense (.736 OPS) and missing Skubal's dominance. Lean under with Tigers.
total far from market
Projection Context
Projected margin1.5
Projected total9.4
Market total7.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-152 / +130DET / BOS moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-138)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -104 / U -117
32 books30 ML25 run line22 total