MLB / mlb / live
DET 6 / BOS 8DETDetroit Tigers57%
BOSBoston Red Sox43%
at Fenway Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedDETAway starterJack Flaherty
Model pickDET moneyline57%Model 20260414_1
BOSHome starterSonny Gray
DET57%ML +115
Base model probability57%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability45%Selected moneyline pick
BOS43%ML -136
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rankUnranked
Total leanOver
Model-market gap12.7 pts
Model favors DET 57.4% vs market's 45.2% (DET +117). Gray's 6.75 ERA in 4.0 IP and Flaherty's 4.15 ERA in 4.1 IP are both tiny samples. BOS offense at .736 OPS suggests runs despite pitcher uncertainty. Model total 9.21 vs market 8.0 feels high but Fenway and small pitcher samples argue volatility.
Large model-market gap
Projection Context
Projected margin0.9
Projected total9.2
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+115 / -136DET / BOS moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+150)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -105 / U -118
31 books29 ML24 run line21 total