MLB / mlb / live
DET 6 / BOS 2DETDetroit Tigers56%
BOSBoston Red Sox44%
at Fenway Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedDETAway starterFramber Valdez
Model pickDET moneyline56%Model 20260414_1
BOSHome starterGarrett Crochet
DET56%ML +120
Base model probability56%Moneyline only
BOS44%ML -143
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time11.9 pts
Model projects 9.14 runs vs market 7.0, a 2+ run gap flagging structural miss. Ace matchup (Crochet 0.00 ERA, Valdez 1.50 ERA in 6 IP each) supports under. Small samples make starter ERAs unreliable but K rates (12.0, 7.5) suggest quality. Model leans DET 55.7% vs market 43.8% for BOS—defer to Pinnacle given thin pitcher data.
Large model-market gaptotal far from marketace matchup
Projection Context
Projected margin0.9
Projected total9.1
Market total7.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+120 / -143DET / BOS moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+158)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -110 / U -110
31 books29 ML24 run line21 total