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MIL 1 / BAL 0
MILMilwaukee Brewers44%
BALBaltimore Orioles56%

at Oriole Park at Camden Yards

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
MILAway starterRobert GasserConfirmed
Model pickBAL moneyline56%Model 20260914_auto
BALHome starterTrevor RogersConfirmed
MIL44%ML -110
Base model probability56%Moneyline only
BAL56%ML -109

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time9.1 pts

Model's BAL lean contradicts a 21-game record gap (96-58 vs 75-79) and a .972 vs .662 OPS comparison, which is exactly the offense/defense mismatch flag. Market at -121 MIL is closer to reality than 55.6% home. Model total of 9.02 vs a 7.5 line is a structural miss in a 0.94 park with two mid-4s ERA starters; lean under.

Large model-market gaptotal far from marketoffense defense mismatch

Projection Context

Projected margin0.4
Projected total9.0
Market total7.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Updated
Market
Robert GasserMIL starter / away
Projected K4.7
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%
O 2.583%
O 3.568%
O 4.550%
O 5.533%
O 6.520%
O 7.511%
O 8.56%
O 9.53%
O 10.51%
O 11.50%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Trevor RogersBAL starter / home
Projected K6.0
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%
O 2.593%
O 3.583%
O 4.570%
O 5.554%
O 6.539%
O 7.526%
O 8.516%
O 9.59%
O 10.55%
O 11.53%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-110 / -109MIL / BAL moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-182)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -110 / U -110
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total