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MIL 6 / BAL 5
MILMilwaukee Brewers44%
BALBaltimore Orioles56%

at Oriole Park at Camden Yards

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
MILAway starterDustin MayConfirmed
Model pickBAL moneyline56%Model 20260914_auto
BALHome starterCade PovichConfirmed
MIL44%ML -149
Base model probability56%Moneyline only
BAL56%ML +123

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total lean · analyst-timeNo total lean
Model-market gap · analyst-timeN/A

Model's 51.9% on BAL is hard to justify: Milwaukee is 95-58 with 7.4 RPG and a .972 OPS against Baltimore's 75-78 and .662 OPS, and the Orioles' starter is TBD with only fallback stats (4.64 ERA, 1.55 WHIP). Taking MIL against the model. No market odds or total available, so no total view and confidence capped.

pitcher data fallbackoffense defense mismatchmarket data missing

Projection Context

Projected margin0.2
Projected total9.0
Market total8.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Dustin MayMIL starter / away
Projected K4.2Actual 4 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +100 bovada / U -111 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 5.526%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.578%over
O 3.560%over
O 4.541%under
O 5.526%under
O 6.514%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Cade PovichBAL starter / home
Projected K3.6Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -150 bovada / U +132 betonlineag4 books at this line
Model over 3.548%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.587%over
O 2.569%over
O 3.548%under
O 4.529%under
O 5.516%under
O 6.58%under
O 7.53%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-149 / +123MIL / BAL moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-131)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -106 / U -118
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total