MLB / mlb / live
CLE 5 / BAL 9CLECleveland Guardians42%
BALBaltimore Orioles58%
at Oriole Park at Camden Yards
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCLEAway starterFoster GriffinConfirmed
Model pickBAL moneyline58%Model 20260907_auto
BALHome starterShane BazConfirmed
CLE42%ML -120
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
BAL58%ML +100
Projection Context
Projected margin0.8
Projected total9.0
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Foster GriffinCLE starter / away
Projected K4.6Actual 4 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -105 draftkings / U -113 fanduel7 books at this line
Model over 5.531%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.582%over
O 3.566%over
O 4.548%under
O 5.531%under
O 6.519%under
O 7.510%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Shane BazBAL starter / home
Projected K5.0Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +128 betonlineag / U -140 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 4.554%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.586%over
O 3.572%over
O 4.554%over
O 5.538%under
O 6.524%under
O 7.514%under
O 8.57%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-120 / +100CLE / BAL moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-165)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -110 / U -110
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total