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CLE 4 / BAL 6
CLECleveland Guardians43%
BALBaltimore Orioles57%

at Oriole Park at Camden Yards

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
CLEAway starterJoey CantilloConfirmed
Model pickBAL moneyline57%Model 20260907_auto
BALHome starterTrevor RogersConfirmed
CLE43%ML +115
Base model probability57%Moneyline only
BAL57%ML -136

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time3.3 pts

Model at 57.2% on BAL is only modestly ahead of the market's 53.9%, and the mismatch flag is real: Baltimore has the worse record and fewer runs per game (3.2 vs 3.7), with Rogers' 4.30 ERA trailing Cantillo's 3.81. Small lean home on price only. Total is the clearer view: two sub-4 RPG offenses in a 0.94 park makes the model's 8.14 look high versus a 7.0 line.

offense defense mismatch

Projection Context

Projected margin0.6
Projected total8.2
Market total7.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Joey CantilloCLE starter / away
Projected K5.5Actual 3 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -143 betrivers / U +120 bovada6 books at this line
Model over 5.546%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.590%over
O 3.578%under
O 4.563%under
O 5.546%under
O 6.531%under
O 7.520%under
O 8.511%under
O 9.56%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Trevor RogersBAL starter / home
Projected K5.9Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -125 fanatics / U +109 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 4.568%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.592%over
O 3.582%over
O 4.568%over
O 5.552%over
O 6.537%under
O 7.524%under
O 8.515%under
O 9.58%under
O 10.54%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+115 / -136CLE / BAL moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+160)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -117 / U -102
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total