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BOS 5 / BAL 0
BOSBoston Red Sox46%
BALBaltimore Orioles54%

at Oriole Park at Camden Yards

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
BOSAway starterSonny GrayConfirmed
Model pickBAL moneyline54%Model 20260831_auto
BALHome starterChris BassittConfirmed
BOS46%ML -126
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
BAL54%ML +108

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#7
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time11.7 pts

Model has BAL at 54% against a market implying 42.3% — an 11-point gap I can't justify. Gray (2.82 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 8.0 K/9) is a clear class comparison over Bassitt (4.97 ERA, 1.58 WHIP, 6.2 K/9), and Boston is 8 games better in the standings. Model total of 9.27 also overshoots the 8.0 line in a 0.94 park with Gray starting.

Large model-market gap

Projection Context

Projected margin0.1
Projected total9.3
Market total7.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Sonny GrayBOS starter / away
Projected K5.2Actual 7 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -105 betmgm / U +101 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 5.541%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.588%over
O 3.574%over
O 4.558%over
O 5.541%over
O 6.527%over
O 7.516%under
O 8.59%under
O 9.55%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Chris BassittBAL starter / home
Projected K4.1Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +112 fanduel / U -132 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 4.539%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.577%over
O 3.558%over
O 4.539%over
O 5.524%over
O 6.513%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-126 / +108BOS / BAL moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-155)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -109 / U -110
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total