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TBR 2 / BAL 3
TBRTampa Bay Rays39%
BALBaltimore Orioles61%

at Oriole Park at Camden Yards

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
TBRAway starterShane McClanahanConfirmed
Model pickBAL moneyline61%Model 20260817_auto
BALHome starterBrandon YoungConfirmed
TBR39%ML -132
Base model probability61%Moneyline only
BAL61%ML +113

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#5
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time15.4 pts

Model's 61% on BAL is 15 points above the market's 45.6% implied, and the mismatch flag fires: Tampa is 76-52 with a .802 OPS versus Baltimore's 62-67 and .662. McClanahan (3.25 ERA, 1.12 WHIP) also outclasses Young (3.52, 1.35). Taking TBR against the model. Camden's 0.94 park factor plus two solid starters argues under the 8.

Large model-market gapoffense defense mismatch

Projection Context

Projected margin0.8
Projected total9.0
Market total8.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Shane McClanahanTBR starter / away
Projected K4.4Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +100 fanatics / U -118 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 4.545%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.581%over
O 3.563%over
O 4.545%over
O 5.529%under
O 6.517%under
O 7.59%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Brandon YoungBAL starter / home
Projected K4.7Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -129 draftkings / U +104 betonlineag5 books at this line
Model over 3.568%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.584%over
O 3.568%under
O 4.550%under
O 5.533%under
O 6.520%under
O 7.511%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-132 / +113TBR / BAL moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-150)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -105 / U -115
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total