MLB / mlb / live
NYY 5 / BAL 3NYYNew York Yankees54%
BALBaltimore Orioles46%
at Oriole Park at Camden Yards
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedNYYAway starterWill WarrenConfirmed
Model pickNYY moneyline54%Model 20260817_auto
BALHome starterChris BassittConfirmed
NYY54%ML -111
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
BAL46%ML -104
Projection Context
Projected margin0.7
Projected total9.1
Market total9.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Will WarrenNYY starter / away
Projected K4.2Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +120 bovada / U -147 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 5.526%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.578%over
O 3.560%over
O 4.541%over
O 5.526%under
O 6.514%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Chris BassittBAL starter / home
Projected K4.0Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -113 fanduel / U -107 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 4.537%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%over
O 2.575%over
O 3.556%over
O 4.537%over
O 5.522%over
O 6.512%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-111 / -104NYY / BAL moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-167)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -120 / U +100
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total