MLB / mlb / live
NYY 6 / BAL 1NYYNew York Yankees53%
BALBaltimore Orioles47%
at Oriole Park at Camden Yards
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedNYYAway starterGerrit ColeConfirmed
Model pickNYY moneyline53%Model 20260817_auto
BALHome starterKyle BradishConfirmed
NYY53%ML -112
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
BAL47%ML -105
Projection Context
Projected margin0.4
Projected total9.2
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Gerrit ColeNYY starter / away
Projected K6.2Actual 8 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O -116 draftkings / U -104 fanduel6 books at this line
Model over 6.542%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.594%over
O 3.585%over
O 4.572%over
O 5.557%over
O 6.542%over
O 7.528%over
O 8.518%under
O 9.511%under
O 10.56%under
O 11.53%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.
Kyle BradishBAL starter / home
Projected K5.4Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -130 fanatics / U +113 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 5.546%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.590%over
O 3.578%over
O 4.562%over
O 5.546%under
O 6.531%under
O 7.519%under
O 8.511%under
O 9.56%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.51%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-112 / -105NYY / BAL moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-182)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O +100 / U -120
33 books31 ML25 run line23 total