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NYY 3 / BAL 1
NYYNew York Yankees46%
BALBaltimore Orioles54%

at Oriole Park at Camden Yards

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
NYYAway starterCarlos RodónConfirmed
Model pickBAL moneyline54%Model 20260817_auto
BALHome starterShane BazConfirmed
NYY46%ML -110
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
BAL54%ML -105

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#5
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time5.1 pts

Rodón (3.30 ERA, 10.1 K/9, 1.25 WHIP) is the better arm over Baz (4.00 ERA, 1.36 WHIP), and NYY holds the record comparison at 69-55 with a .692 OPS, so I lean away from the model's BAL side into a pick'em market. Camden's 0.939 park factor plus the strikeout comparison argues under the model's 8.87 and under 8.5. NYY's listed 3.0 RPG against a .692 OPS looks internally inconsistent, so no more than a lean.

Projection Context

Projected margin0.1
Projected total8.9
Market total8.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Carlos RodónNYY starter / away
Projected K4.9Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -154 fanduel / U +120 bovada3 books at this line
Model over 4.553%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.585%over
O 3.570%over
O 4.553%under
O 5.536%under
O 6.523%under
O 7.513%under
O 8.57%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Shane BazBAL starter / home
Projected K5.5Actual 10 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -140 fanatics / U +112 fanduel7 books at this line
Model over 5.547%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.590%over
O 3.579%over
O 4.564%over
O 5.547%over
O 6.532%over
O 7.520%over
O 8.512%over
O 9.56%over
O 10.53%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 10 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-110 / -105NYY / BAL moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-168)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -113 / U -107
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total