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PHI 8 / BAL 0
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies55%
BALBaltimore Orioles45%

at Oriole Park at Camden Yards

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
PHIAway starterZack WheelerConfirmed
Model pickPHI moneyline55%Model 20260727_auto
BALHome starterKyle BradishConfirmed
PHI55%ML -145
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
BAL45%ML +121

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time0.2 pts

Wheeler's 2.53 ERA and 10.75 K/9 over 103 IP is elite. Model converges with market on PHI (55% vs Pinnacle 56%). Camden Yards pitcher park (0.94 PF) suppresses totals. Model's 8.76 contradicts market 7.5 by 1.26 runs; SHAP heavily weights Wheeler's strikeouts pushing total down, but BAL's .662 OPS offense is league-average and PHI bullpen likely regresses the total up.

Projection Context

Projected margin0.8
Projected total8.8
Market total8.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Zack WheelerPHI starter / away
Projected K7.5Actual 3 K / Under 7.5
Best price at 7.57.5O -109 betonlineag / U -110 bovada7 books at this line
Model over 7.547%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%over
O 2.597%over
O 3.593%under
O 4.585%under
O 5.574%under
O 6.561%under
O 7.547%under
O 8.534%under
O 9.523%under
O 10.515%under
O 11.59%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Kyle BradishBAL starter / home
Projected K5.7Actual 3 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -106 fanduel / U -112 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 5.550%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.591%over
O 3.580%under
O 4.566%under
O 5.550%under
O 6.534%under
O 7.522%under
O 8.513%under
O 9.57%under
O 10.54%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-145 / +121PHI / BAL moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-136)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -110 / U -110
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total