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scheduled
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies55%
BALBaltimore Orioles45%

at Oriole Park at Camden Yards

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
PHIAway starterZack WheelerConfirmed
Model pickPHI moneyline55%Model 20260727_auto
BALHome starterKyle BradishConfirmed
PHI55%ML -138
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability55%Selected moneyline pick
BAL45%ML +115

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rankUnranked
Total leanOver
Model-market gap0.3 pts

Wheeler's 2.53 ERA and 10.75 K/9 over 103 IP is elite. Model converges with market on PHI (55% vs Pinnacle 56%). Camden Yards pitcher park (0.94 PF) suppresses totals. Model's 8.76 contradicts market 7.5 by 1.26 runs; SHAP heavily weights Wheeler's strikeouts pushing total down, but BAL's .662 OPS offense is league-average and PHI bullpen likely regresses the total up.

Projection Context

Projected margin0.8
Projected total8.8
Market total8.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Updated
Market
Zack WheelerPHI starter / away
Projected K7.4
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%
O 2.597%
O 3.593%
O 4.585%
O 5.574%
O 6.560%
O 7.546%
O 8.533%
O 9.523%
O 10.515%
O 11.59%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Kyle BradishBAL starter / home
Projected K5.7
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%
O 2.591%
O 3.581%
O 4.566%
O 5.550%
O 6.535%
O 7.522%
O 8.513%
O 9.57%
O 10.54%
O 11.52%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus-138 / +115PHI / BAL moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-150)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -110 / U -112
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total