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PHI 4 / BAL 6
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies47%
BALBaltimore Orioles53%

at Oriole Park at Camden Yards

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
PHIAway starterAndrew PainterConfirmed
Model pickBAL moneyline53%Model 20260727_auto
BALHome starterBrandon YoungConfirmed
PHI47%ML 0
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
BAL53%ML -116

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#5
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time6.7 pts

PHI pitcher TBD means the model is using a generic fallback; the 10.98 K/9 may not reflect tonight's actual starter. Model has PHI at 55.2% vs market 48.5%—a 6.7pp gap favoring the away team despite incomplete info. Camden park factor 0.94 and Young's solid 3.13 ERA in 97.7 IP suggest lean under 9.0, but I pass on the side without knowing who's pitching.

pitcher data fallback

Projection Context

Projected margin0.1
Projected total9.1
Market total9.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Andrew PainterPHI starter / away
Projected K3.4Actual 6 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -142 draftkings / U +115 bovada5 books at this line
Model over 3.545%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.585%over
O 2.566%over
O 3.545%over
O 4.527%over
O 5.514%over
O 6.57%under
O 7.53%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Brandon YoungBAL starter / home
Projected K5.5Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -135 bovada / U +119 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 4.563%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.590%over
O 3.579%over
O 4.563%over
O 5.547%under
O 6.532%under
O 7.520%under
O 8.512%under
O 9.56%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus0 / -116PHI / BAL moneyline
Run line context-1.3 (+138)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -110 / U -110
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total