sharps.ggEvery pick graded
Back to board

MLB / mlb / live

scheduled
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies55%
BALBaltimore Orioles45%

at Oriole Park at Camden Yards

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
PHIAway starterStarter TBD
Model pickPHI moneyline55%Model 20260727_auto
BALHome starterStarter TBD
PHI55%ML -104
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability49%Selected moneyline pick
BAL45%ML -118

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#5
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap6.7 pts

PHI pitcher TBD means the model is using a generic fallback; the 10.98 K/9 may not reflect tonight's actual starter. Model has PHI at 55.2% vs market 48.5%—a 6.7pp gap favoring the away team despite incomplete info. Camden park factor 0.94 and Young's solid 3.13 ERA in 97.7 IP suggest lean under 9.0, but I pass on the side without knowing who's pitching.

pitcher data fallback

Projection Context

Projected margin0.7
Projected total8.9
Market total8.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Updated
Market
Brandon YoungBAL starter / home
Projected K5.5
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%
O 2.590%
O 3.579%
O 4.563%
O 5.547%
O 6.532%
O 7.520%
O 8.512%
O 9.56%
O 10.53%
O 11.51%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus-104 / -118PHI / BAL moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-184)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -119 / U +100
28 books27 ML19 run line18 total