MLB / mlb / live
ATL 3 / BAL 2ATLAtlanta Braves45%
BALBaltimore Orioles55%
at Oriole Park at Camden Yards
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedATLAway starterReynaldo LópezConfirmed
Model pickBAL moneyline55%Model 20260720_auto
BALHome starterShane BazConfirmed
ATL45%ML -112
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
BAL55%ML -105
Projection Context
Projected margin0.2
Projected total8.8
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Reynaldo LópezATL starter / away
Projected K4.4Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -155 betmgm / U +129 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 4.545%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.581%over
O 3.563%over
O 4.545%over
O 5.529%over
O 6.516%under
O 7.59%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
Shane BazBAL starter / home
Projected K5.2Actual 2 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +128 betrivers / U -144 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 5.542%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.588%under
O 3.575%under
O 4.559%under
O 5.542%under
O 6.527%under
O 7.516%under
O 8.59%under
O 9.55%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-112 / -105ATL / BAL moneyline
Run line context1.3 (-151)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -120 / U +100
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total