MLB / mlb / live
ATL 7 / BAL 6ATLAtlanta Braves45%
BALBaltimore Orioles55%
at Oriole Park at Camden Yards
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedATLAway starterGrant HolmesConfirmed
Model pickBAL moneyline55%Model 20260720_auto
BALHome starterTrevor RogersConfirmed
ATL45%ML +114
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
BAL55%ML -134
Projection Context
Projected margin0.3
Projected total9.3
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Grant HolmesATL starter / away
Projected K4.3Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -135 betonlineag / U +120 fanatics4 books at this line
Model over 4.543%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.579%over
O 3.561%over
O 4.543%over
O 5.527%under
O 6.515%under
O 7.58%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Trevor RogersBAL starter / home
Projected K4.8Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -125 betmgm / U +118 betrivers6 books at this line
Model over 4.552%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.585%over
O 3.570%over
O 4.552%over
O 5.535%over
O 6.522%under
O 7.512%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+114 / -134ATL / BAL moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+150)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -118 / U +100
33 books32 ML23 run line23 total