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CHC 2 / BAL 3
CHCChicago Cubs52%
BALBaltimore Orioles48%

at Oriole Park at Camden Yards

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
CHCAway starterDavid PetersonConfirmed
Model pickCHC moneyline52%Model 20260706_auto
BALHome starterTrevor RogersConfirmed
CHC52%ML +108
Base model probability52%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability46%Selected moneyline pick
BAL48%ML -128

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#5
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap5.8 pts

Model has CHC at 51.9%, market has BAL at 54.6% — modest disagreement favoring home side. CHC offense (6.8 RPG, .694 OPS) significantly outperforms BAL (4.0 RPG, .662 OPS). Peterson's 6.75 ERA is exploitable but Rogers at 4.7 ERA with Camden's slight pitcher tilt (PF 0.939) suggests tight game. Model's 9.04 total vs market 10.0 argues under; lean CHC on superior offense.

Projection Context

Projected margin0.5
Projected total9.1
Market total9.5
Total leanUnder

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
David PetersonCHC starter / away
Projected K4.3Actual 2 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +126 fanduel / U -154 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 4.543%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.580%under
O 3.562%under
O 4.543%under
O 5.527%under
O 6.516%under
O 7.58%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Trevor RogersBAL starter / home
Projected K4.5Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -105 betmgm / U -105 fanatics6 books at this line
Model over 4.547%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.582%over
O 3.565%over
O 4.547%under
O 5.530%under
O 6.518%under
O 7.510%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus+108 / -128CHC / BAL moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+155)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.5O -115 / U -105
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total