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CHW 1 / BAL 6
CHWChicago White Sox44%
BALBaltimore Orioles56%

at Oriole Park at Camden Yards

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
CHWAway starterNoah SchultzConfirmed
Model pickBAL moneyline56%Model 20260629_auto
BALHome starterDean KremerConfirmed
CHW44%ML +129
Base model probability56%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability58%Selected moneyline pick
BAL56%ML -150

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#8
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap1.7 pts

BAL pitcher is TBD fallback (team's recent starter proxy). CHW's Schultz has only 38.7 IP, 5.82 ERA in 8 starts—small sample noise. Model and market converge on coin-flip moneyline (model 55.9%, Pinnacle implies 55.6%). Camden Yards park factor 0.94 plus pitcher uncertainty argues under the 10.5 market total despite model's 9.04.

pitcher data fallbackoffense defense mismatch

Projection Context

Projected margin0.5
Projected total8.9
Market total10.0
Total leanUnder

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Noah SchultzCHW starter / away
Projected K3.8Actual 7 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -155 betrivers / U +128 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 3.551%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.588%over
O 2.572%over
O 3.551%over
O 4.533%over
O 5.518%over
O 6.59%over
O 7.54%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Dean KremerBAL starter / home
Projected K4.8Actual 4 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +124 fanduel / U -132 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 5.536%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.585%over
O 3.570%over
O 4.552%under
O 5.536%under
O 6.522%under
O 7.513%under
O 8.57%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus+129 / -150CHW / BAL moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+130)Home spread price shown for context
Total context10.0O -115 / U -105
32 books31 ML23 run line22 total