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CHW 8 / BAL 2
CHWChicago White Sox56%
BALBaltimore Orioles44%

at Oriole Park at Camden Yards

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
CHWAway starterSean BurkeConfirmed
Model pickCHW moneyline56%Model 20260629_auto
BALHome starterShane BazConfirmed
CHW56%ML +112
Base model probability56%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability45%Selected moneyline pick
BAL44%ML -134

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap10.8 pts

Model has CHW at 56% vs market's 44%, a massive 12pp gap flagged as market_disagreement_large. Model total of 7.26 is 1.74 runs under market's 9.0—structural miss likely. Burke's 3.71 ERA and 8.97 K/9 in 87 IP is solid; Baz at 4.31 ERA/1.38 WHIP is exploitable. Camden Yards PF 0.94 suppresses runs. Model and market can't both be right on total; lean under with market, slight CHW comparison.

Large model-market gaptotal far from market

Projection Context

Projected margin1.2
Projected total9.5
Market total9.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Sean BurkeCHW starter / away
Projected K5.2Actual 8 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +100 betmgm / U -110 bovada7 books at this line
Model over 5.541%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.588%over
O 3.575%over
O 4.558%over
O 5.541%over
O 6.527%over
O 7.516%over
O 8.59%under
O 9.55%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.

Shane BazBAL starter / home
Projected K5.3Actual 6 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +110 fanduel / U -132 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 5.543%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.589%over
O 3.576%over
O 4.560%over
O 5.543%over
O 6.529%under
O 7.518%under
O 8.510%under
O 9.55%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus+112 / -134CHW / BAL moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+151)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.5O +100 / U -120
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total