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WSN 4 / BAL 3
WSNWashington Nationals53%
BALBaltimore Orioles47%

at Oriole Park at Camden Yards

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
WSNAway starterFoster GriffinConfirmed
Model pickWSN moneyline53%Model 20260622_auto
BALHome starterBrandon YoungConfirmed
WSN53%ML -104
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability49%Selected moneyline pick
BAL47%ML -113

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#5
Total leanOver
Model-market gap4.4 pts

Model likes WSN at 53.4%, market has them at 48.5% — modest comparison. Both pitchers sub-3.15 ERA but Griffin's peripherals (8.77 K/9, 1.06 WHIP) superior to Young's (6.55 K/9, 1.26 WHIP). Model total 9.32 vs market 8.5 suggests structural miss on offensive context. WSN's .820 OPS vs BAL's .662 OPS supports away side lean.

ace matchup

Projection Context

Projected margin0.7
Projected total9.3
Market total9.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Foster GriffinWSN starter / away
Projected K5.7Actual 9 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +134 betonlineag / U -160 fanatics4 books at this line
Model over 6.535%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.591%over
O 3.581%over
O 4.566%over
O 5.550%over
O 6.535%over
O 7.523%over
O 8.514%over
O 9.58%under
O 10.54%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.

Brandon YoungBAL starter / home
Projected K4.3Actual 8 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +125 betmgm / U -152 fanduel6 books at this line
Model over 4.543%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.579%over
O 3.561%over
O 4.543%over
O 5.527%over
O 6.515%over
O 7.58%over
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus-104 / -113WSN / BAL moneyline
Run line context1.0 (-148)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -107 / U -115
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total