MLB / mlb / live
SDP 9 / BAL 3SDPSan Diego Padres46%
BALBaltimore Orioles54%
at Oriole Park at Camden Yards
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedSDPAway starterRandy Vásquez
Model pickBAL moneyline54%Model 20260414_1
BALHome starterTrey Gibson
SDP46%ML +104
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability53%Selected moneyline pick
BAL54%ML -122
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.1
Projected total9.1
Market total10.0
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedLines
Randy VásquezSDP starter / away
Projected K3.9Actual 5 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -111 draftkings / U +100 bovada5 books at this line
Model over 3.554%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.589%over
O 2.574%over
O 3.554%over
O 4.535%over
O 5.520%under
O 6.511%under
O 7.55%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Trey GibsonBAL starter / home
Projected K4.0Actual 7 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +128 draftkings / U -135 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 3.556%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%over
O 2.575%over
O 3.556%over
O 4.537%over
O 5.522%over
O 6.512%over
O 7.56%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+104 / -122SDP / BAL moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+152)Home spread price shown for context
Total context10.0O -115 / U -105
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total