MLB / mlb / live
TOR 5 / BAL 6TORToronto Blue Jays56%
BALBaltimore Orioles44%
at Oriole Park at Camden Yards
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedTORAway starterTrey Yesavage
Model pickTOR moneyline56%Model 20260414_1
BALHome starterBrandon Young
TOR56%ML -125
Base model probability56%Moneyline only
BAL44%ML +106
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#6
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time2.8 pts
Model has TOR 55.7%, market implies 52.9% - modest comparison. Model total of 9.04 vs market 7.5 is a 1.54-run gap, triggering far_from_market flag. Both pitchers lack season stats despite 10 starts each, making this a data quality concern. Market's 7.5 total in a pitcher park (0.938 PF) suggests confidence in pitching; model's over-lean via away LHP SHAP seems structural. Pass on total given stat gaps.
total far from market
Projection Context
Projected margin0.9
Projected total9.0
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-125 / +106TOR / BAL moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-160)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -110 / U -110
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total