MLB / mlb / live
TOR 2 / BAL 1TORToronto Blue Jays55%
BALBaltimore Orioles45%
at Oriole Park at Camden Yards
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedTORAway starterPatrick Corbin
Model pickTOR moneyline55%Model 20260414_1
BALHome starterChris Bassitt
TOR55%ML +109
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability46%Selected moneyline pick
BAL45%ML -129
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total leanOver
Model-market gap9.3 pts
Model picks TOR at 55.2% but market has BAL at 54.1% - disagreement flag fires. BAL's 5.6 RPG vs TOR's 3.8 RPG suggests offensive mismatch favors home. Model total 9.06 vs market 8.5 is modest 0.56 gap. Park factor 0.94 is pitcher-friendly but not extreme. Flip a coin on side, slight over lean on volume.
Large model-market gap
Projection Context
Projected margin0.7
Projected total9.1
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+109 / -129TOR / BAL moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+156)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -105 / U -115
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total