MLB / mlb / live
TBR 1 / BAL 6TBRTampa Bay Rays46%
BALBaltimore Orioles54%
at Oriole Park at Camden Yards
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedTBRAway starterGriffin Jax
Model pickBAL moneyline54%Model 20260414_1
BALHome starterShane Baz
TBR46%ML -112
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
BAL54%ML -105
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time4.8 pts
Model picks BAL 53.5% but market has TBR -110 (52.4%). Tampa Bay is 34-17 vs Baltimore 24-30, 5.7 RPG vs 4.4, .802 OPS vs .662. Both pitchers have tiny IP samples (5.1 and 1.0) making ERA/WHIP meaningless. Market correctly favors the better team. Total 9.06 vs 8.5 line reasonable given offensive mismatch.
offense defense mismatch
Projection Context
Projected margin0.0
Projected total9.1
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-112 / -105TBR / BAL moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-166)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -115 / U -105
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total