MLB / mlb / live
DET 4 / BAL 7DETDetroit Tigers42%
BALBaltimore Orioles58%
at Oriole Park at Camden Yards
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedDETAway starterJack Flaherty
Model pickBAL moneyline58%Model 20260414_1
BALHome starterKeegan Akin
DET42%ML +112
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability55%Selected moneyline pick
BAL58%ML -132
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#9
Total leanOver
Model-market gap2.9 pts
Market favors BAL at 55.9% while model leans DET at 52.2% - classic disagreement scenario. BAL offense (3.6 RPG, .662 OPS) significantly stronger than DET (2.1 RPG, .582 OPS). Missing Bassitt's ERA/WHIP is concerning but model picking worse offensive team is the bigger red flag. Model total 9.22 vs market 8.5 suggests over lean, supported by Flaherty's 1.85 WHIP.
Large model-market gapoffense defense mismatch
Projection Context
Projected margin0.3
Projected total9.2
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+112 / -132DET / BAL moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+158)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -112 / U -108
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total