MLB / mlb / live
DET 4 / BAL 7DETDetroit Tigers42%
BALBaltimore Orioles58%
at Oriole Park at Camden Yards
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedDETAway starterJack Flaherty
Model pickBAL moneyline58%Model 20260414_1
BALHome starterKeegan Akin
DET42%ML +112
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
BAL58%ML -132
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#9
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time8.1 pts
Market favors BAL at 55.9% while model leans DET at 52.2% - classic disagreement scenario. BAL offense (3.6 RPG, .662 OPS) significantly stronger than DET (2.1 RPG, .582 OPS). Missing Bassitt's ERA/WHIP is concerning but model picking worse offensive team is the bigger red flag. Model total 9.22 vs market 8.5 suggests over lean, supported by Flaherty's 1.85 WHIP.
Large model-market gapoffense defense mismatch
Projection Context
Projected margin0.3
Projected total9.2
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+112 / -132DET / BAL moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+158)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -112 / U -108
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total