MLB / mlb / live
HOU 11 / BAL 5HOUHouston Astros43%
BALBaltimore Orioles57%
at Oriole Park at Camden Yards
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedHOUAway starterLance McCullers Jr.
Model pickBAL moneyline57%Model 20260414_1
BALHome starterBrandon Young
HOU43%ML +104
Base model probability57%Moneyline only
BAL57%ML -122
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#9
Total lean · analyst-timeNo total lean
Model-market gap · analyst-timeN/A
Both pitchers are fallback data (Young 5.1 IP / 10 starts is obviously incomplete, away starter is TBD). Market data is stale. Model leans BAL at 58% on a margin of 0.65 runs—essentially a coin flip with structural uncertainty baked in. No position warranted.
pitcher data fallbackmarket data missing
Projection Context
Projected margin0.3
Projected total8.9
Market total9.0
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+104 / -122HOU / BAL moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+160)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -105 / U -115
31 books29 ML24 run line21 total