MLB / mlb / live
BOS 5 / BAL 3BOSBoston Red Sox37%
BALBaltimore Orioles63%
at Oriole Park at Camden Yards
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedBOSAway starterConnelly Early
Model pickBAL moneyline63%Model 20260414_1
BALHome starterKyle Bradish
BOS37%ML +120
Base model probability63%Moneyline only
BAL63%ML -145
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time6.3 pts
Model has BAL 62.6% vs market 56.3% — a 6.3pp gap favoring the home side. But BOS has stronger offense (.736 OPS vs .662) despite worse record. Early's 1.69 ERA in 53 IP with 10.13 K/9 is legitimate; Bradish's 4.2 IP sample is too thin to trust his 3.86. Model total 8.67 vs market 7.5 suggests over lean in a pitcher park (0.94 PF).
Projection Context
Projected margin1.1
Projected total8.7
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+120 / -145BOS / BAL moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+150)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -110 / U -110
31 books29 ML24 run line21 total