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scheduled
CINCincinnati Reds36%
ATLAtlanta Braves64%

at Truist Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
CINAway starterBrady SingerProbable
Model pickATL moneyline64%Model 20260921_auto
ATLHome starterTyler MahleProbable
CIN36%ML +185
Base model probability64%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability66%Selected moneyline pick
ATL64%ML -225

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time2.2 pts

ATL is the right side: 93-65 with .789 OPS and 4.8 RPG against a Cincinnati offense at 2.8 RPG and .629 OPS, with Singer carrying a 5.67 ERA and 1.56 WHIP versus Mahle's 3.81. Market at -211 (66.4%) already prices this above the model's 64.2%, so no comparison, just a defensible side. Model's 8.98 total looks structurally high given CIN's scoring rate and Truist's 0.915 run factor — under 7.5.

Projection Context

Projected margin1.2
Projected total9.0
Market total7.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Updated
Market
Lines
Brady SingerCIN starter / away
Projected K4.4
Best price at 3.53.5O -128 fanduel / U +115 betmgm7 books at this line
Model over 3.563%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%
O 2.580%
O 3.563%
O 4.544%
O 5.528%
O 6.516%
O 7.58%
O 8.54%
O 9.52%
O 10.51%
O 11.50%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Tyler MahleATL starter / home
Projected K6.6
Best price at 5.55.5O -135 bovada / U +108 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 5.563%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%
O 2.595%
O 3.588%
O 4.577%
O 5.563%
O 6.548%
O 7.534%
O 8.522%
O 9.514%
O 10.58%
O 11.54%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Market odds · pregame

Market consensus+185 / -225CIN / ATL moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (-104)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -115 / U -104
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total