MLB / mlb / live
PHI 2 / ATL 12PHIPhiladelphia Phillies43%
ATLAtlanta Braves57%
at Truist Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedPHIAway starterTim MayzaConfirmed
Model pickATL moneyline57%Model 20260907_auto
ATLHome starterTyler MahleConfirmed
PHI43%ML +120
Base model probability57%Moneyline only
ATL57%ML -140
Projection Context
Projected margin0.5
Projected total8.0
Market total8.5
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Tim MayzaPHI starter / away
Projected K2.1Actual 4 K
Market line ยท pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.561%over
O 2.535%over
O 3.516%over
O 4.57%under
O 5.52%under
O 6.51%under
O 7.50%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Tyler MahleATL starter / home
Projected K5.5Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +100 betonlineag / U -111 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 4.564%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.590%over
O 3.579%under
O 4.564%under
O 5.547%under
O 6.532%under
O 7.520%under
O 8.512%under
O 9.56%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.52%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+120 / -140PHI / ATL moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+145)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -105 / U -115
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total