MLB / mlb / live
TBR 1 / ATL 3TBRTampa Bay Rays48%
ATLAtlanta Braves52%
at Truist Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedTBRAway starterNick MartinezConfirmed
Model pickATL moneyline52%Model 20260907_auto
ATLHome starterMartín PérezConfirmed
TBR48%ML +105
Base model probability52%Moneyline only
ATL52%ML -125
Projection Context
Projected margin0.2
Projected total9.2
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Nick MartinezTBR starter / away
Projected K3.9Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +100 bovada / U -111 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 3.555%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%over
O 2.574%over
O 3.555%under
O 4.536%under
O 5.521%under
O 6.511%under
O 7.55%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Martín PérezATL starter / home
Projected K3.8Actual 4 K / Over 2.5
Best price at 2.52.5O -135 betmgm / U +130 bovada4 books at this line
Model over 2.572%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.588%over
O 2.572%over
O 3.552%over
O 4.533%under
O 5.519%under
O 6.59%under
O 7.54%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+105 / -125TBR / ATL moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+163)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -105 / U -116
33 books31 ML23 run line24 total