MLB / mlb / live
PHI 5 / ATL 6PHIPhiladelphia Phillies48%
ATLAtlanta Braves52%
at Truist Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedPHIAway starterAaron NolaConfirmed
Model pickATL moneyline52%Model 20260907_auto
ATLHome starterChris SaleConfirmed
PHI48%ML +155
Base model probability52%Moneyline only
ATL52%ML -185
Projection Context
Projected margin0.0
Projected total7.8
Market total7.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Aaron NolaPHI starter / away
Projected K5.8Actual 3 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -108 fanduel / U -114 betrivers7 books at this line
Model over 5.552%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.592%over
O 3.582%under
O 4.568%under
O 5.552%under
O 6.537%under
O 7.524%under
O 8.515%under
O 9.58%under
O 10.54%under
O 11.52%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Chris SaleATL starter / home
Projected K7.5Actual 6 K / Under 7.5
Best price at 7.57.5O +107 betrivers / U -121 draftkings8 books at this line
Model over 7.547%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%over
O 2.597%over
O 3.593%over
O 4.585%over
O 5.574%over
O 6.561%under
O 7.547%under
O 8.534%under
O 9.524%under
O 10.515%under
O 11.59%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+155 / -185PHI / ATL moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+120)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -115 / U -105
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total