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COL 2 / ATL 3
COLColorado Rockies37%
ATLAtlanta Braves63%

at Truist Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
COLAway starterMason AdamsConfirmed
Model pickATL moneyline63%Model 20260824_auto
ATLHome starterTyler MahleConfirmed
COL37%ML +200
Base model probability63%Moneyline only
ATL63%ML -245

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#8
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time4.5 pts

Market implies 67.9% on ATL; model 63.4%, so no comparison on the favorite but the side is fine. Adams has 1 start and 4.0 IP — that 2.25 ERA is meaningless, and COL's .531 OPS is a poor road offense. Model's 8.69 total sits above the 8.5 line despite Truist's 0.915 park factor; I lean under.

Projection Context

Projected margin1.0
Projected total8.7
Market total8.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Mason AdamsCOL starter / away
Projected K3.9Actual 5 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -110 betmgm / U -109 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 3.555%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%over
O 2.574%over
O 3.555%over
O 4.536%over
O 5.521%under
O 6.511%under
O 7.55%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Tyler MahleATL starter / home
Projected K5.3Actual 9 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -115 bovada / U +100 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 5.543%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.589%over
O 3.576%over
O 4.560%over
O 5.543%over
O 6.528%over
O 7.517%over
O 8.510%over
O 9.55%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+200 / -245COL / ATL moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (-115)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -105 / U -115
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total