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COL 4 / ATL 6
COLColorado Rockies51%
ATLAtlanta Braves49%

at Truist Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
COLAway starterTomoyuki SuganoConfirmed
Model pickCOL moneyline51%Model 20260824_auto
ATLHome starterGrant HolmesConfirmed
COL51%ML +189
Base model probability51%Moneyline only
ATL49%ML -225

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#4
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time17.8 pts

Model lands on COL at 50.6% against a market implying 67.2% home, a large gap I would not chase: ATL is 79-55 versus 52-82 and Holmes (3.64 ERA, 1.32 WHIP) outclasses Sugano (4.96 ERA, 5.25 K/9). Team RPG/OPS lines look internally inconsistent, so I weight records and starters. Truist at 0.915 park factor plus a 9.56 model total over a 9.0 line favors the under.

Large model-market gap

Projection Context

Projected margin0.2
Projected total9.0
Market total9.0
Total leanUnder

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Tomoyuki SuganoCOL starter / away
Projected K3.7Actual 4 K / Over 2.5
Best price at 2.52.5O -175 betmgm / U +146 fanduel5 books at this line
Model over 2.571%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.588%over
O 2.571%over
O 3.551%over
O 4.532%under
O 5.518%under
O 6.59%under
O 7.54%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Grant HolmesATL starter / home
Projected K4.3Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -132 betrivers / U +115 betonlineag7 books at this line
Model over 4.543%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.580%over
O 3.562%under
O 4.543%under
O 5.527%under
O 6.516%under
O 7.58%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+189 / -225COL / ATL moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (-110)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -110 / U -110
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total