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LAD 0 / ATL 1
LADLos Angeles Dodgers59%
ATLAtlanta Braves41%

at Truist Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
LADAway starterYoshinobu YamamotoConfirmed
Model pickLAD moneyline59%Model 20260824_auto
ATLHome starterChris SaleConfirmed
LAD59%ML +103
Base model probability59%Moneyline only
ATL41%ML -120

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time12.8 pts

Model's 8.92-run total is 2.4 runs above the 6.5 market line despite Sale (2.20 ERA, 11.07 K/9) vs Yamamoto (2.61 ERA, 0.90 WHIP) in a 0.915 park — a structural miss on park and ace matchup. Its 59.3% on LAD also sits ~13 pts off the market's 53.5% home implied. Siding with the market on Atlanta at home, under on total.

Large model-market gaptotal far from marketace matchup

Projection Context

Projected margin1.2
Projected total8.9
Market total6.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD starter / away
Projected K5.7Actual 8 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +125 betonlineag / U -150 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 6.535%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.591%over
O 3.581%over
O 4.566%over
O 5.550%over
O 6.535%over
O 7.523%over
O 8.514%under
O 9.58%under
O 10.54%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.

Chris SaleATL starter / home
Projected K7.1Actual 11 K / Over 7.5
Best price at 7.57.5O +130 betonlineag / U -155 betmgm5 books at this line
Model over 7.542%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%over
O 2.597%over
O 3.591%over
O 4.582%over
O 5.570%over
O 6.556%over
O 7.542%over
O 8.529%over
O 9.519%over
O 10.512%over
O 11.57%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 11 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+103 / -120LAD / ATL moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+180)Home spread price shown for context
Total context6.5O -101 / U -118
32 books31 ML23 run line23 total