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LAD 3 / ATL 4
LADLos Angeles Dodgers60%
ATLAtlanta Braves40%

at Truist Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
LADAway starterTyler GlasnowConfirmed
Model pickLAD moneyline60%Model 20260824_auto
ATLHome starterBryce ElderConfirmed
LAD60%ML -155
Base model probability60%Moneyline only
ATL40%ML +132

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#5
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time1.2 pts

Model (59.8% LAD) and market (implied 58.6% away) converge, so no real disagreement to exploit. Glasnow's 0.83 WHIP and 11.12 K/9 over 39.7 IP outclass Elder's 3.92 ERA and 1.23 WHIP. Model's 9.17-run total sits well above the 8.5 line despite Truist's 0.915 park factor; I side under.

Projection Context

Projected margin1.6
Projected total9.2
Market total8.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Tyler GlasnowLAD starter / away
Projected K5.3Actual 7 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +115 betmgm / U -145 fanatics5 books at this line
Model over 6.528%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.588%over
O 3.576%over
O 4.559%over
O 5.543%over
O 6.528%over
O 7.517%under
O 8.59%under
O 9.55%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Bryce ElderATL starter / home
Projected K4.1Actual 5 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -138 draftkings / U +110 bovada6 books at this line
Model over 3.559%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.577%over
O 3.559%over
O 4.540%over
O 5.524%under
O 6.513%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-155 / +132LAD / ATL moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-130)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -120 / U -101
32 books31 ML23 run line23 total