sharps.ggEvery pick graded
Back to board

MLB / mlb / live

ARI 2 / ATL 0
ARIArizona Diamondbacks35%
ATLAtlanta Braves65%

at Truist Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
ARIAway starterBrandon PfaadtConfirmed
Model pickATL moneyline65%Model 20260810_auto
ATLHome starterChris SaleConfirmed
ARI35%ML +168
Base model probability65%Moneyline only
ATL65%ML -201

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#6
Total lean · analyst-timeNo total lean
Model-market gap · analyst-timeN/A

ATL is the better team (73-48, .789 OPS vs ARI's .564) and at home, so the model's 65% lean is directionally fine. But the Braves starter is TBD with fallback stats (4.64 ERA, 1.32 WHIP), which undercuts both the side and the 8.80 total. No market odds available for a sanity check, and Truist at a 0.915 park factor with Pfaadt (3.36 ERA) argues the projected total is inflated. Lean only.

pitcher data fallbackmarket data missing

Projection Context

Projected margin1.5
Projected total8.8
Market total8.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Brandon PfaadtARI starter / away
Projected K3.8Actual 7 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -105 betmgm / U -113 fanduel7 books at this line
Model over 3.553%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.589%over
O 2.573%over
O 3.553%over
O 4.534%over
O 5.520%over
O 6.510%over
O 7.55%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Chris SaleATL starter / home
Projected K6.4Actual 9 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +100 draftkings / U -110 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 6.545%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.594%over
O 3.587%over
O 4.575%over
O 5.560%over
O 6.545%over
O 7.531%over
O 8.520%over
O 9.512%under
O 10.57%under
O 11.54%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+168 / -201ARI / ATL moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+105)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -110 / U -110
31 books30 ML23 run line22 total