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NYM 3 / ATL 6
NYMNew York Mets41%
ATLAtlanta Braves59%

at Truist Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
NYMAway starterZac ThorntonConfirmed
Model pickATL moneyline59%Model 20260810_auto
ATLHome starterTyler MahleConfirmed
NYM41%ML +158
Base model probability59%Moneyline only
ATL59%ML -185

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time0.7 pts

Model (59.1%) and market (59.8%) agree on Atlanta, and the 72-48 record plus .789 OPS backs it despite Mahle's 4.83 ERA and 1.36 WHIP. Thornton's 2.52 ERA over just 39.1 IP with a 6.18 K/9 looks unsustainable, but Truist's 0.915 park factor argues the model's 8.86 total is too high versus the 8.5 line.

Projection Context

Projected margin0.8
Projected total8.9
Market total8.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Zac ThorntonNYM starter / away
Projected K4.0Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -114 betonlineag / U +105 bovada7 books at this line
Model over 3.555%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%over
O 2.575%under
O 3.555%under
O 4.536%under
O 5.521%under
O 6.511%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Tyler MahleATL starter / home
Projected K5.3Actual 7 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +125 fanatics / U -140 betmgm5 books at this line
Model over 5.543%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.589%over
O 3.576%over
O 4.560%over
O 5.543%over
O 6.528%over
O 7.517%under
O 8.510%under
O 9.55%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+158 / -185NYM / ATL moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+113)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -120 / U +100
31 books30 ML23 run line22 total