sharps.ggEvery pick graded
Back to board

MLB / mlb / live

ARI 10 / ATL 3
ARIArizona Diamondbacks34%
ATLAtlanta Braves66%

at Truist Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
ARIAway starterEduardo RodriguezConfirmed
Model pickATL moneyline66%Model 20260810_auto
ATLHome starterGrant HolmesConfirmed
ARI34%ML +114
Base model probability66%Moneyline only
ATL66%ML -134

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#8
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time10.8 pts

Model's 65.6% on ATL is nearly 11 points above the market's 54.8% implied, and the justification is thin: E-Rodriguez carries a 2.70 ERA and 1.23 WHIP over 143.1 IP, better than Holmes' 3.47/1.32. ATL is the better team (73-49, .789 OPS) so the side is fine, but not at the model's price. Ace matchup plus Truist's 0.915 run factor points under 9.

Large model-market gapace matchup

Projection Context

Projected margin1.5
Projected total8.8
Market total9.0
Total leanUnder

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Eduardo RodriguezARI starter / away
Projected K4.6Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +118 fanduel / U -139 betonlineag6 books at this line
Model over 4.547%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.582%over
O 3.566%over
O 4.547%over
O 5.531%under
O 6.518%under
O 7.510%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Grant HolmesATL starter / home
Projected K3.8Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -136 betrivers / U +115 bovada7 books at this line
Model over 3.552%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.588%over
O 2.572%over
O 3.552%under
O 4.533%under
O 5.519%under
O 6.510%under
O 7.55%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+114 / -134ARI / ATL moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+150)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -110 / U -110
31 books30 ML23 run line22 total