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scheduled
MIAMiami Marlins52%
ATLAtlanta Braves48%

at Truist Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
MIAAway starterJanson JunkProbable
Model pickMIA moneyline52%Model 20260803_auto
ATLHome starterMartín PérezProbable
MIA52%ML +125
Base model probability52%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability43%Selected moneyline pick
ATL48%ML -147

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap9.6 pts

Disagreeing with the model: it takes MIA despite worse record (58-57 vs 69-45), lower OPS (.774 vs .789), and the weaker starter (Junk 4.58 ERA, 1.33 WHIP vs Perez 3.24, 1.17). Market's 57.3% on ATL looks better calibrated than the model's 52.4% on Miami. Truist at 0.915 PF plus modest offenses argues under 9.0.

Large model-market gapoffense defense mismatch

Projection Context

Projected margin0.6
Projected total9.2
Market total9.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Updated
Market
Lines
Janson JunkMIA starter / away
Projected K3.8
Best price at 3.53.5O -112 draftkings / U -105 betmgm5 books at this line
Model over 3.552%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.588%
O 2.572%
O 3.552%
O 4.533%
O 5.519%
O 6.510%
O 7.54%
O 8.52%
O 9.51%
O 10.50%
O 11.50%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Martín PérezATL starter / home
Projected K4.3
Best price at 3.53.5O -150 betmgm / U +134 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 3.562%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%
O 2.580%
O 3.562%
O 4.543%
O 5.527%
O 6.516%
O 7.58%
O 8.54%
O 9.52%
O 10.51%
O 11.50%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus+125 / -147MIA / ATL moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+134)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -110 / U -110
32 books31 ML23 run line22 total