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NYM 0 / ATL 4
NYMNew York Mets55%
ATLAtlanta Braves45%

at Truist Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
NYMAway starterNolan McLeanConfirmed
Model pickNYM moneyline55%Model 20260810_auto
ATLHome starterMartín PérezConfirmed
NYM55%ML +113
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
ATL45%ML -132

Projection Context

Projected margin0.7
Projected total9.2
Market total8.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Nolan McLeanNYM starter / away
Projected K6.1Actual 3 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -145 fanatics / U +120 bovada6 books at this line
Model over 5.556%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.593%over
O 3.584%under
O 4.571%under
O 5.556%under
O 6.541%under
O 7.527%under
O 8.517%under
O 9.510%under
O 10.55%under
O 11.53%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Martín PérezATL starter / home
Projected K4.3Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -145 betmgm / U +119 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 3.562%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.579%under
O 3.562%under
O 4.543%under
O 5.527%under
O 6.515%under
O 7.58%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+113 / -132NYM / ATL moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+155)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -108 / U -111
31 books30 ML23 run line22 total