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SDP 6 / ATL 7
SDPSan Diego Padres49%
ATLAtlanta Braves51%

at Truist Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
SDPAway starterMichael KingConfirmed
Model pickATL moneyline51%Model 20260720_auto
ATLHome starterMartín PérezConfirmed
SDP49%ML -104
Base model probability51%Moneyline only
ATL51%ML -115

Projection Context

Projected margin0.2
Projected total9.0
Market total8.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Michael KingSDP starter / away
Projected K4.2Actual 7 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +115 betonlineag / U -130 bovada7 books at this line
Model over 4.541%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.578%over
O 3.560%over
O 4.541%over
O 5.525%over
O 6.514%over
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Martín PérezATL starter / home
Projected K3.9Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +115 betonlineag / U -128 fanduel6 books at this line
Model over 3.554%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.589%over
O 2.574%over
O 3.554%under
O 4.535%under
O 5.521%under
O 6.511%under
O 7.55%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-104 / -115SDP / ATL moneyline
Run line context-1.0 (+125)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -120 / U +100
33 books32 ML23 run line23 total