MLB / mlb / live
NYM 10 / ATL 9NYMNew York Mets44%
ATLAtlanta Braves56%
at Truist Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedNYMAway starterNolan McLeanConfirmed
Model pickATL moneyline56%Model 20260629_auto
ATLHome starterMartín PérezConfirmed
NYM44%ML -110
Base model probability56%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability50%Selected moneyline pick
ATL56%ML -108
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.5
Projected total8.8
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Nolan McLeanNYM starter / away
Projected K5.5Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -138 fanduel / U +119 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 5.546%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.590%over
O 3.578%over
O 4.563%over
O 5.546%under
O 6.531%under
O 7.520%under
O 8.511%under
O 9.56%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.51%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Martín PérezATL starter / home
Projected K4.7Actual 1 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +122 fanduel / U -152 betrivers5 books at this line
Model over 4.550%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%under
O 2.584%under
O 3.568%under
O 4.550%under
O 5.533%under
O 6.520%under
O 7.511%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-110 / -108NYM / ATL moneyline
Run line context1.0 (-148)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -110 / U -108
33 books32 ML23 run line23 total