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STL 1 / ATL 5
STLSt. Louis Cardinals42%
ATLAtlanta Braves58%

at Truist Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
STLAway starterMichael McGreevyConfirmed
Model pickATL moneyline58%Model 20260629_auto
ATLHome starterReynaldo LópezConfirmed
STL42%ML +117
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability56%Selected moneyline pick
ATL58%ML -139

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap1.8 pts

Model has ATL 57.6%, market implies 55.0% — minimal comparison. Both pitchers sub-3.50 ERA qualifies ace_matchup; Truist PF 0.915 suppresses offense further. Model total 8.82 vs market 9.0 aligns with under lean. McGreevy's 89 IP sample more reliable than López's 47 IP, but ATL's .789 OPS edges STL slightly at home.

ace matchup

Projection Context

Projected margin0.5
Projected total8.8
Market total9.0
Total leanUnder

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Michael McGreevySTL starter / away
Projected K3.9Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +130 bovada / U -154 betonlineag7 books at this line
Model over 3.553%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.589%over
O 2.573%over
O 3.553%under
O 4.534%under
O 5.520%under
O 6.510%under
O 7.55%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Reynaldo LópezATL starter / home
Projected K4.2Actual 6 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +130 betmgm / U -149 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 3.560%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.579%over
O 3.560%over
O 4.542%over
O 5.526%over
O 6.514%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus+117 / -139STL / ATL moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+150)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -118 / U -103
32 books31 ML23 run line22 total