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STL 5 / ATL 3
STLSt. Louis Cardinals42%
ATLAtlanta Braves58%

at Truist Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
STLAway starterMatthew LiberatoreConfirmed
Model pickATL moneyline58%Model 20260629_auto
ATLHome starterMartín PérezConfirmed
STL42%ML +124
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability57%Selected moneyline pick
ATL58%ML -147

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap0.5 pts

Model at 57.6% vs market 58.2% on ATL—tight convergence. Pérez (3.00 ERA, 1.13 WHIP) vs Liberatore (5.56 ERA, 1.58 WHIP) is a clear mismatch favoring home. Truist Park factor 0.915 suppresses scoring. STL's .812 OPS edges ATL's .789 but Liberatore's peripherals suggest regression. Total 9.09 vs market 9.0 is essentially aligned; pitcher park + Pérez comparison argues under.

Projection Context

Projected margin0.8
Projected total9.1
Market total9.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Matthew LiberatoreSTL starter / away
Projected K4.6Actual 9 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +135 bovada / U -145 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 4.547%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.582%over
O 3.566%over
O 4.547%over
O 5.531%over
O 6.518%over
O 7.510%over
O 8.55%over
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.

Martín PérezATL starter / home
Projected K4.5Actual 1 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -135 betmgm / U +116 fanduel6 books at this line
Model over 3.566%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%under
O 2.582%under
O 3.566%under
O 4.547%under
O 5.531%under
O 6.518%under
O 7.510%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus+124 / -147STL / ATL moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+135)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -115 / U -105
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total