sharps.ggEvery pick graded
Back to board

MLB / mlb / live

MIL 9 / ATL 4
MILMilwaukee Brewers51%
ATLAtlanta Braves49%

at Truist Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
MILAway starterRobert GasserConfirmed
Model pickMIL moneyline51%Model 20260616_auto
ATLHome starterBryce ElderConfirmed
MIL51%ML +100
Base model probability51%Moneyline only
ATL49%ML -119

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#6
Total lean · analyst-timeNo total lean
Model-market gap · analyst-time3.9 pts

Model has MIL 51.5%, market has ATL 52.4% — essentially a coinflip. Elder's 3.15 ERA over 88.7 IP is legitimate, but Gasser's 4.88 in only 24 IP is too small a sample to trust. ATL's 2.5 RPG offense is concerning despite .789 OPS. Park factor suppresses runs. No structural comparison visible.

Projection Context

Projected margin0.4
Projected total9.6
Market total9.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Robert GasserMIL starter / away
Projected K4.1Actual 7 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +130 draftkings / U -157 betrivers5 books at this line
Model over 4.540%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.577%over
O 3.558%over
O 4.540%over
O 5.524%over
O 6.513%over
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Bryce ElderATL starter / home
Projected K4.3Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +120 betrivers / U -128 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 4.542%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.579%over
O 3.561%over
O 4.542%over
O 5.526%over
O 6.515%under
O 7.58%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+100 / -119MIL / ATL moneyline
Run line context-1.0 (+125)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -104 / U -117
33 books32 ML23 run line23 total