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SFG 7 / ATL 2
SFGSan Francisco Giants51%
ATLAtlanta Braves49%

at Truist Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
SFGAway starterAdrian HouserConfirmed
Model pickSFG moneyline51%Model 20260616_auto
ATLHome starterGrant HolmesConfirmed
SFG51%ML +145
Base model probability51%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability39%Selected moneyline pick
ATL49%ML -175

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#10
Total leanNo total lean
Model-market gap12.0 pts

Model has SFG at 51% but market strongly favors ATL at 60%. ATL is 46-25, SFG is 29-43 with a bizarre 5.8 RPG paired with .388 OPS—data quality issue likely. Market disagreement is large; market knows something structural about SFG's offense metric. Truist Park factor 0.915 argues under but model total 9.24 matches market 9.0. Defer to market on side, no comparison on total.

Large model-market gap

Projection Context

Projected margin0.3
Projected total9.2
Market total9.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Adrian HouserSFG starter / away
Projected K3.7Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +120 draftkings / U -143 betrivers6 books at this line
Model over 3.550%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.588%over
O 2.571%under
O 3.550%under
O 4.532%under
O 5.518%under
O 6.59%under
O 7.54%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Grant HolmesATL starter / home
Projected K4.5Actual 2 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -104 fanduel / U -108 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 4.546%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.581%under
O 3.565%under
O 4.546%under
O 5.530%under
O 6.517%under
O 7.59%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus+145 / -175SFG / ATL moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+115)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -110 / U -110
33 books31 ML23 run line23 total