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SFG 7 / ATL 5
SFGSan Francisco Giants55%
ATLAtlanta Braves45%

at Truist Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
SFGAway starterCarson WhisenhuntConfirmed
Model pickSFG moneyline55%Model 20260616_auto
ATLHome starterJR RitchieConfirmed
SFG55%ML +118
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability44%Selected moneyline pick
ATL45%ML -140

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total leanNo total lean
Model-market gap10.5 pts

Model favors SFG 54.5% but market has ATL at 56.6%. Away pitcher is TBD fallback (team's recent starter stats). Model's total 9.34 vs market 9.0 is minor butpark factor 0.915 argues under. Home SHAP features show pitcher quality driving model toward SFG, but with fallback data quality I lean market's ATL pick.

pitcher data fallbackLarge model-market gap

Projection Context

Projected margin0.6
Projected total9.5
Market total9.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Carson WhisenhuntSFG starter / away
Projected K3.3Actual 2 K
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.583%over
O 2.562%under
O 3.541%under
O 4.523%under
O 5.512%under
O 6.55%under
O 7.52%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

JR RitchieATL starter / home
Projected K3.8Actual 4 K
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.588%over
O 2.572%over
O 3.552%over
O 4.533%under
O 5.519%under
O 6.510%under
O 7.54%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus+118 / -140SFG / ATL moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+145)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -105 / U -115
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total